The return of cartridges?

What do the Atari 2600, Sega Genesis, and Nintendo 64 have in common? They are all cartridge-based video game systems. But there hasn't been a cartridge-based video game system since the N64, nowadays everything is disc-based (be it CD, DVD, or BluRay). Well I wouldn't be surprised if future video game systems return to cartridges.

I know, at first that sounds like a step backwards - but if you think about it such a step would actually make sense. First off, why did companies stop using cartridges in favor of discs in the first place? The answer is simple - cost. Back in the day the chips needed to make cartridges were very expensive whereas mass producing discs is dirt cheap. But discs have some real drawbacks.

1. They are slow to load. Whereas cartridges are near instantaneous, discs are slow to spin and read. Also, disc loading speeds cannot improve beyond their current state. To load faster the disc needs to be spun faster, but they are already spinning the discs at their maximum, to spin them any faster would shatter the discs.
   
2. Discs are more fragile than cartridges. Discs are easy to scratch or break.
   
3. Discs are relatively large in size. Discs are 12cm (approx 5") in diameter, which means the drive has to be at least that large, which also means the game console has to at least be larger than the drive. For example look at the Wii, the console is the size of a disc drive, so without the drive how much smaller could the console be?
   
4. Discs are limited in capacity. Already it's not uncommon for games to come on multiple discs. One of the original selling points to discs was their greater capacity, but their capacity hasn't progressed at the same rate as memory chips.
   
5. Discs are relatively easy to duplicate (pirate). Yes, all modem video game consoles employ counter measures to prevent pirating, but still it happens. There are ways to modify your console machine to play pirated discs. As long as game consoles use the same media as home computers, pirating will be prevalent.
   

I wouldn't be surprised if a video game console in the near future returns to cartridges. Think of those handy thumb drives (a.k.a. flash drives) you carry in your pocket. Compared to discs those are a lot smaller, more durable, faster access times, and can store more data. So why not store games on drives like that? The cost is still higher than discs, but the cost per gigabyte has come way down thanks to thumb drives, RAM, and SSDs. The industry is pumping out memory chips at unbelievable rates.

Of course, I think the primary distribution method for games in the future will be downloads off the Internet. But as a secondary media (for purchase in stores) I see cartridges as a better option that discs. I guess we'll just have to wait and see if video game manufactures agree with me.