Is the PC industry dying?

If you read a lot of technical news articles and commentary like I do, then you've probably seen predictions that the PC industry is dying.  They all point to the rise of smart phones and tablets as the leading killer of the personal computer.  I'm not going to argue, these devices have taken away market share from the PC, and these newer devices have their place.  But I think people are overreacting.

To me, I think the underlying issue here is how people "use" data.  I think that working with a computer you are either "consuming" data or you are "creating" data.  Consuming data would be tasks like reading a webpage, checking your email, watching a video, playing a video game, etc.  All of these tasks, the main flow of data and information is toward you the user.  Creating data is obviously the opposite.  If you're writing a paper for school, editing video/audio, putting together a business presentation, etc.  With these tasks the flow of information is opposite, from you the user.

So what does this have to do with smart phones, tablets, and PCs.  Simple, I strongly believe (and I think most people would agree) that smart phones and tablets are great "consumers" of information but awkward at best at producing data.  If you have to write a 20 page paper for a class in school, are you really going to compose it on a phone or tablet!?!  No, you'd sit down with a real computer and a real keyboard.  So as long as people need to create data, the need for PCs will there.

Again, it is true that smart phones and tablets are eating away at the PC segment.  But I predict this will be a temporary trend.  A lot of people only use their home computer for "consuming" tasks like checking email and surfing the web.  For these people, a smart phone or a tablet makes sense.  So when the time comes for them to buy a new PC because their current PC is outdated, they will buy a smart phone or tablet instead.  But once everyone who should have been using these devices over a PC has made the switch, the market share will stabilize.

There is one more really big thing that most people are oblivious to.  Most people don't realize that the single biggest market segment for computers is businesses.  Corporations spend a lot more money on PCs than the home user.  And most businesses need computers to do their job.  Most employees sitting behind a computer are "creating" content and not consuming it.  Therefore that computer is hard to replace with a smart phone or tablet.

This is why I firmly believe the PC segment will be around for a long time.  It may take a small hit in the short term, but the industry will go on and thrive.  What's more, Windows continues to be far and away the world's most used platform with >90% of the total computing market share.  So everyone is hot to trot over new things like Android and iOS, but these have a long way to go to catch up to PCs and Windows.